Should the Bruins be Favorited to Win the Cup?

As I write this, the Boston Bruins sit first in the league standings with 110 points. They first in wins, third in G/G, first in GA/G, and are the best 5 on 5 team in hockey. They've won 9 road games in a row and are on a 15-0-1 streak.

Yet, there are still those out there who think we can't beat a powerhouse Western Conference team in a 7 game series. As far as I'm concerned, this is completely unfounded. In fact, not only can we beat any team in a 7 game series, I believe we should beat any team.

So I'm going to just say it: The Boston Bruins should be favorited to win the Stanley Cup this year.

Instead of pouring through piles of stats and boring you with numbers, I'm going to take a different approach in backing up my statement. That said, I do love stats and facts. I'll be sure to sprinkle a few in for the number-crunching B's fans out there.

I want to look objectively at the following question: What is the recipe for a Championship team? It's far more than simply talent. Just look at the Washington Capitals and San Jose Sharks- perennially among top-ranking regular season teams, but just can't seem to ever make a deep playoff run.

So here is my take on what ingredients make for a Stanley Cup winner and why the Bruins fit the bill perfectly.


1. A hot goaltender.
Props to Peter Chiarelli for this one. By trading a not-so-special Andrew Raycroft for Finnish prospect Tuukka Rask in 2006, it was almost like Chiarelli was visited by the "Ghost of Vezinas Future" and played the Maple Leafs for fools. Since taking over the starting job following Tim Thomas' controversial departure from the team, Rask has been consistently stellar and has proven himself durable.

This season, however, he has been off the charts. It seems the Finnish phenom is a lock for the Vezina trophy, leading all the full-time starts in Goals Against Average, Save Percentage, and shutouts. He is 5th in the league in Wins, but this is only because the strong play of backup Chad Johnson has been great, allowing Rask to get the occasional break.

How about Johnson, by the way? He sits at 20-5 with a .927 SV% and a 2.02 GAA and a pair of shutouts. This is HUGE from a backup goalie for two reasons: 1) It gives Julien confidence in playing him and resting Tuukka, which is very helpful before a long playoff run and 2) He consistently gives the Bruins a chance to win and never gives the opponent a night off.

Rask is for real and I can't wait to see what he does in the playoffs. Teams need their goalies to get hot in order to win the Cup. Just look at Crawford, Quick, and Thomas in recent years.

2. Depth at Forward
I'm not being facetious when I say that I believe the Bruins have the best 4 lines in hockey. Julien has said time and again what a pleasure it is to be able to throw 4 lines out there night after night, when a lot of coaches have to double shift their best players or only throw our their 4th line occasionally for a fight or bit of energy.

The Krejci-Iginla-Lucic line has been dominant since day one. It seems like a match made in heaven. They have scoring (Iginla), passing (Krejci), and physicality (Lucic.) This is the kind of line that will dominate come playoff time, not the uber-talented but weak lines some other teams sport. The Bergeron line has found their offensive fire lately, and even when they're not on the scores sheet they're shutting down other team's top lines. Believe me when I say that every team in the league wishes they had Bergeron.

The bottom two lines have been huge as well. Soderberg has been a very pleasant surprise, and he seems to have found great chemistry with Kelly and Eriksson. This line really attests to the Bruins' depth: on many teams, Eriksson's a first line player. But the Bruins are so deep that he offers some scoring and defensive responsibility in a 3rd line role. And then of course there is the blue-collar Campbell-Thornton-Paille line, who plays a simple, effective game. Easily the best fourth line in hockey.

3. Well-Rounded Defense
Their defense is poised for a long playoff run as well. Chara is a rock, and Hamilton has proven himself to be a reliable blue-liner who's capable of playing first-pairing minutes as well as contributing offensively. With the absence of Seidenberg, Boychuk will be relied on to be step up physically and defensively. And the young guys like Krug and Bartkowski have been brilliant on moving the puck up-ice on the breakout, which is something we lacked in years past. But what is really exciting is having guys like Miller and Meszaros as options for that 6th defenseman role, Corey Potter (who's a useful player) as even more insurance, and guys from Providence that can come up and contribute. That said, it's even possible that Seidenberg and McQuaid could return for the playoffs.

4. Veteran Leadership
People often forget that most of these guys were here in 2011 and have won the cup before. These guys know what it takes to win and are willing to do it. That's why you'll see Lucic lay that big hit to free up the puck, Krejci slow the rush down just a bit to hit the open guy with a pass, and Boychuk dive in front of a slap shot. These are the things that won them the cup in 2011 and they want it again.

Chara is one of the best captains in the league, but Bergeron is the guy that I'm drawn too. Can you believe he's only 28? He's been here forever. Through devastating concussions, good seasons and bad, and nobody can forget what he battled through in Game 6 last year. Then there is Iginla, who is absolutely one of the best players and leaders in the game over the last 10 years. He is going to be huge in the playoffs.

It takes a lot to lose a game in double overtime and bounce back the next night, but those are the kinds of things that happen in the playoffs. This is where the veterans step up for the younger guys who haven't been there before.

5. Coaching
There is a great deal of trial and error in the playoffs and there's a very small margin for mistakes. Julien has coached his team into the playoffs for 6 years in a row now and has won the Cup. He's not as fiery as a Tortorella or Laviolette, but he has quietly been among the best coaches in recent years.

A quick example that comes to mind is how he handled Tyler Seguin and Shawn Thornton two years ago. To start the playoffs, Thornton sat in lieu of Seguin, just a 19 year old kid. Seguin wasn't producing enough, so Julien announced that he would sit and Thornton would play. Radio hosts and hockey analysts said this was the wrong move and that Thornton had little to contribute. Wouldn't you know it that Thornton was throwing big hits, dropping the mitts, and inspiring energy into his team. He was a difference make in that first game back.

Then, Julien dressed Seguin again in the Tampa Bay series. Watching from the press box above must have done wonders because he scored four points in his first game back including two of the prettiest goals you'll ever see.

Another example is when Horton went down after the Aaron Rome hit. Many wanted Seguin to jump to that top line alongside Krejci and Lucic, but Julien elected to go with speedy winger Rich Peverly instead. Peverly scored two goals that game. Julien knows his players and he knows how to win. I have complete faith in him.

Are you convinced?
The Bruins are the hottest team in hockey. But what makes me believe in them so much is not just that they're winning, it's how they're winning. If it's a tight defensive game, the Bruins can squeeze out a goal and beat you 1-0. If it's an offensive show, they can put up 4-5 goals and Rask can stop 40 shots.

They come back from behind all the time and they rarely give up a lead. They're getting scoring from all 4 lines as well as their defenseman (1st in league in defenseman goals, obviously). They're not heavily reliant on any one player, so if if one guy goes cold, two other step up. It's an exciting thing to watch.

The Outlook
There isn't a team in the East that can touch them. Sure, the Penguins have offensive firepower. They did last year, and the Bruins swept them. Fine, the Habs seem to give the Bruins fits at times, but the Bruins beat them soundly last time and the Canadiens aren't as poised for a deep run as Boston is. And don't get me started on the Flyers.

Then we look at the West. As I've already said, the Sharks are a team that deflates in the playoffs so I don't think we'll get to play them. The Blackhawks are a great team but are without Toews and Kane for an unknown amount of time. And besides, they're been smoked by the Avalanche all year and that seems to be a lock for a first round matchup.

The Avalanche, coached by legend Patrick Roy, have been a great story this season but I'm not threatened by them at all. They're a very young team with little playoff experience. I expect an early round exit for them. The Anaheim Ducks are a team I like and they're led by former champions Getzlaf, Selanne, and Perry. However, they're a very top-heavy team and don't have too much depth after their superstars. We might seem them make a run, but I think the playoffs will wear on them.

Then there is the LA Kings, champions of 2012. Their lineup is deep, talented, physical, and they have a goalie who can take over entire series in Jonathon Quick. They play a very similar game to the Bruins. This is a team ready for a long run and a shot at another trophy.

But my money's on the St. Louis Blues. Everything I listed above for the reasons the Bruins fit the mold for a championship team can be applied to the Blues as well. With the addition of Ryan Miller, they will be a tough team to beat. I forecast a Bruins-Blues Stanley Cup Finals and could absolutely see it going 7 games. But I take the Bruin, because I don't think Ryan Miller is mentally tough enough to win it all and I just love the Bruins.

Am I too high on this team? It's hard not to love what we've been seeing out of this group for the past two months. I'd love to hear some thoughts and counter-arguments. But it's been a few months since our last parade and I'm ready for another one.